After a calm new year weekend with many events canceled or limited due to the prolonged rise in covid case counts, investors returned Monday assessing the potential uneven road ahead. First economic indicators arrive Friday with December’s jobs report and unemployment rate. Surveyed estimates show about 410k jobs gained, almost double the amount for November, and the reported monthly unemployment rate expected to be 4.1%, down from 4.2% last month. Early growth forecasts for the year look to be mild but eager to improve based on the Fed’s progress on controlling inflation in the coming months.
Equities eased into the new year trading in range around 4780. The 10-year treasury yield rose dramatically this morning from 1.50% to almost 1.64% with investors anticipating rate hikes starting in March.
After an unusually bearish fourth quarter, Bitcoin holds in a near-term range of $46k to $52k into the new year. Continued volatility within this range carries a neutral sentiment. An early tone for the year will be set with a higher high or lower low above or below the current range, respectively. Price action is also suggestive of a low timeframe bullish double-bottom so long as no lower lows are achieved. Price also sits just below the 200-day moving average with a looming Death Cross, a market indicator where the short term moving average price moves below the long term average price, in this case 50 day over the 200 day, hinting at on-going bearish sentiment. A high timeframe bullish trend resumption is likely with a breach above $54k before the end of the month.
Steven McClurg, CIO
Bill Cannon, Portfolio Manager
Wes Cowan, Portfolio Manager, Head of Defi
Sean Rooney, Head of Research, Trader
Will McDonough, Vice Chairman, Investment Committee
Leah Wald, CEO, Investment Committee
Shannon Smith, Head of Investor Relations