BTF - Bitcoin Strategy ETF Learn More → | WGMI - Bitcoin Miners ETF Learn More → | Valkyrie's Opportunities Around GBTC Learn More →
Recent economic data, which has historically correlated as an inflationary indicator, suggests a pivot in pricing behavior is occurring. However, the complete scope of expectations will be better understood after CPI and PPI are released later this week, as well as the beginning of corporate earnings season.
Brent oil futures prices dropped briefly below $100 a barrel Wednesday before rising above the mark by the weekend. Price was around $114 during the holiday weekend before the decline. As a result of rising inventories at major consumer outlets like Target and Walmart, WSJ reported shipping freight rates are starting to decline as well, with contracts renegotiated and reduced about 20%, in line with current trend expectations. Friday’s unemployment rate remained at 3.6% from last month, while change in non-farm payrolls added 372k jobs last month, demonstrating strength in the labor market despite macro fundamentals weakening. Year over year CPI expectations are currently surveyed at 8.8%, slightly higher than 8.6%. Core CPI, excluding energy and food, looks to decline to 5.7%, from 6% last month. Month over month CPI looks to rise just slightly to 1.1% from 1%, with core declining to 0.5% from 0.6%.
Fed funds futures are currently pricing in another 75 basis point hike at the end of the month, which would add to the 150 basis points raised this year. If 75 basis points is confirmed at the conclusion of meetings this month, futures suggest an additional 100-125 basis points to go, which would bring rates to the 3.5-4.0% target rate. Meanwhile, the 2/10 treasury yield spread has dropped below -8 basis points, one of the lowest points historically. The front end of the curve has notably risen about 20 basis points over the last week, which could be viewed as a precursor to a recessionary period. The 10 year treasury yield alone rose to about 3.1% Friday after a low of 2.75% Wednesday. Monday pushed the yield lower to the 3% level. The shortened week had equities trend higher with the S&P 500 finishing the week at the 3,900 level, up from 3,750 Tuesday.
this Friday, currently surveyed to remain unchanged at 3.6%. Next FOMC meeting is at the end of the month.
The unwinding of leverage in the digital asset ecosystem continues. Last week, crypto lender Celsius fully repaid the $41.2 million debt owed to a MakerDAO loan, unlocking nearly 22,000 in wrapped Bitcoin (wBTC). On-chain evidence suggests Celsius and crypto lender Nexo have begun liquidating substantial amounts of Bitcoin and Ethereum via centralized exchanges. Celsius associated wallets continue to hold 10,000 wBTC and 410,000 staked Ethereum (stETH), as well as other mixed digital assets. Nexo associated wallets continue to hold 88,000 stETH and other mixed digital assets. Nexo’s co-founder, Antoni Trenchev, has previously denied insolvency rumors. Nexo has also hired Citibank to advise on potential acquisitions, including troubled crypto lender Vauld. However, broader custody concerns continue, as Bitcoin held on centralized exchange associated wallets have dropped below four-year lows, according to Glassnode.
On a technical basis, the Bitcoin price continues to hold near the 200-week moving average, 2018 all-time high, and realized price, or aggregate average price of all coins moved on-chain. Historically, these areas have acted as an accumulation zone in prior bear markets. Bitcoin’s hash rate decline may accelerate this week as all industrial miners located in Texas have curtailed power use in response to concerns over grid stability during an ongoing heat wave.
Download the Full Weekly Market Review Here
Steven McClurg, CIO
Bill Cannon, Portfolio Manager
Wes Cowan, Portfolio Manager, Head of Defi
Josh Olszewicz, Head of Research
Sean Rooney, VP Research and Trading
Will McDonough, Vice Chairman, Investment Committee
Leah Wald, CEO, Investment Committee
Shannon Smith, Head of Investor Relations
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
__hssrc | session | This cookie is set by Hubspot whenever it changes the session cookie. The __hssrc cookie set to 1 indicates that the user has restarted the browser, and if the cookie does not exist, it is assumed to be a new session. |
AWSELB | session | Associated with Amazon Web Services and created by Elastic Load Balancing, AWSELB cookie is used to manage sticky sessions across production servers. |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement | 1 year | Set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie is used to record the user consent for the cookies in the "Advertisement" category . |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional | 11 months | The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary". |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-others | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. |
cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance | 11 months | This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance". |
CookieLawInfoConsent | 1 year | Records the default button state of the corresponding category & the status of CCPA. It works only in coordination with the primary cookie. |
viewed_cookie_policy | 11 months | The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. It does not store any personal data. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
__cf_bm | 30 minutes | This cookie, set by Cloudflare, is used to support Cloudflare Bot Management. |
__hssc | 30 minutes | HubSpot sets this cookie to keep track of sessions and to determine if HubSpot should increment the session number and timestamps in the __hstc cookie. |
bcookie | 2 years | LinkedIn sets this cookie from LinkedIn share buttons and ad tags to recognize browser ID. |
bscookie | 2 years | LinkedIn sets this cookie to store performed actions on the website. |
lang | session | LinkedIn sets this cookie to remember a user's language setting. |
lidc | 1 day | LinkedIn sets the lidc cookie to facilitate data center selection. |
UserMatchHistory | 1 month | LinkedIn sets this cookie for LinkedIn Ads ID syncing. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
AWSELBCORS | 5 minutes | This cookie is used by Elastic Load Balancing from Amazon Web Services to effectively balance load on the servers. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
__hstc | 5 months 27 days | This is the main cookie set by Hubspot, for tracking visitors. It contains the domain, initial timestamp (first visit), last timestamp (last visit), current timestamp (this visit), and session number (increments for each subsequent session). |
_ga | 2 years | The _ga cookie, installed by Google Analytics, calculates visitor, session and campaign data and also keeps track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookie stores information anonymously and assigns a randomly generated number to recognize unique visitors. |
_ga_HB5P757H6F | 2 years | This cookie is installed by Google Analytics. |
_gat_gtag_UA_202302885_1 | 1 minute | Set by Google to distinguish users. |
_gid | 1 day | Installed by Google Analytics, _gid cookie stores information on how visitors use a website, while also creating an analytics report of the website's performance. Some of the data that are collected include the number of visitors, their source, and the pages they visit anonymously. |
at-rand | never | AddThis sets this cookie to track page visits, sources of traffic and share counts. |
CONSENT | 2 years | YouTube sets this cookie via embedded youtube-videos and registers anonymous statistical data. |
hubspotutk | 5 months 27 days | HubSpot sets this cookie to keep track of the visitors to the website. This cookie is passed to HubSpot on form submission and used when deduplicating contacts. |
undefined | never | Wistia sets this cookie to collect data on visitor interaction with the website's video-content, to make the website's video-content more relevant for the visitor. |
uvc | 1 year 1 month | Set by addthis.com to determine the usage of addthis.com service. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
_fbp | 3 months | This cookie is set by Facebook to display advertisements when either on Facebook or on a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising, after visiting the website. |
fr | 3 months | Facebook sets this cookie to show relevant advertisements to users by tracking user behaviour across the web, on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin. |
loc | 1 year 1 month | AddThis sets this geolocation cookie to help understand the location of users who share the information. |
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE | 5 months 27 days | A cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface. |
YSC | session | YSC cookie is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos on Youtube pages. |
yt-remote-connected-devices | never | YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video. |
yt-remote-device-id | never | YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video. |
yt.innertube::nextId | never | This cookie, set by YouTube, registers a unique ID to store data on what videos from YouTube the user has seen. |
yt.innertube::requests | never | This cookie, set by YouTube, registers a unique ID to store data on what videos from YouTube the user has seen. |
Cookie | Duration | Description |
---|---|---|
AnalyticsSyncHistory | 1 month | No description |
li_gc | 2 years | No description |
loglevel | never | No description available. |
pum-1717 | 1 month | No description |