Markets welcomed some fresh air to start the year with a robust jobs number Friday as the unemployment rate declined slightly to 3.5% from November’s revised 3.6%. Equities moved higher suggesting the aggressive rate hike strategy to tame inflation could be slowing. Fed fund futures are currently pricing in a total of only 50-75 basis points to reach a terminal rate closer to 5%, a level the Fed is likely to maintain through 2023. Fed officials remain hawkish offering comments that suggest a higher rate environment are necessary until more convincing signs in the economy portend otherwise. Interest rates have reacted positively as well with the belly of the curve surrounding the 10-year treasury diving lower about 30 basis points week over week, while the very front end of the curve followed market sentiment and remained higher.
Corporate earnings season begins soon with anxiety around what the holidays really brought in this year. Economic indicators continue to roll in with Thursday’s CPI print currently expected to decrease to 6.5% from 7.1% year over year, with core CPI, excluding food and energy, also expected to trend lower to 5.7% from 6.0%. The only potential curve ball this time around is the month-over-month core CPI print, which is expected to rise slightly to 0.3% from 0.2%, which could result in drama if numbers come in hotter than expected. Initial jobless claims maintain their historically low level near the 200k mark, which could feed a rise in the Michigan consumer sentiment index, released on Friday. The Fed is currently postured to curb any dovish enthusiasm this time of the year. A slip in possible pivot sentiment could lead to detrimental consequences looking forward and tear down the substantial progress made over the past 12 months.
Bear market blues continue for many digital asset companies as staff reduction announcements remain a near daily occurrence. Although Bitcoin volatility remains relatively quiet, several lower market cap coins, such as Binance Coin, Cardano, Polygon, Litecoin, Polkadot, Uniswap, Avalanche, Atom, and Near, have all posted double digit percent gains over the past few days. Solana, the network with close ties to Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX, has climbed nearly 65% over the past week. These significant weekly relief rallies come after yearly performances pushed -60% to -90%.
Prices relative to the 200-day moving average (DMA) remain a strong litmus test for trend and sentiment. As Bitcoin and Ethereum have slowly crept higher over the past week, their respective 200-DMAs Nevertheless show a gradual decline. Despite both sitting convincingly in bearish territory, a potential trend shift throughout Q1 is not out of the question. Trends for Bitcoin and Ethereum would flip bullish with prices above $19,500 and $1400, respectively.
In terms of the relative ETH/BTC pair, two important upcoming events in 2023 may possibly have an impact on price. Redemptions of customer’s Mt. Gox coins, a Bitcoin exchange shuttered in 2014, will likely occur in late Q3. According to creditor statements and chain analysis, there are 142,000 coins (or 0.675% of the total circulating supply) for potential redemption, no word on the total percentage which have been claimed via repayment registration. All of these coins hold at least a 22,000% profit at current price levels.
For Ethereum, the proof-of-stake validator coins and associated rewards may also begin to become unlocked in the latter half of this year. The testnet period for this process is set to begin in February. Currently, both coins sent to create validators and proof-of-stake rewards have no process for redemption, which has a one-sided effect on circulating supply. These coins account for 16.69 million ETH or 13.52% of the total issued supply and are unlikely to be redeemed in a vast quantity but some redemptions to cash will occur.
|__hssrc||session||This cookie is set by Hubspot whenever it changes the session cookie. The __hssrc cookie set to 1 indicates that the user has restarted the browser, and if the cookie does not exist, it is assumed to be a new session.|
|AWSELB||session||Associated with Amazon Web Services and created by Elastic Load Balancing, AWSELB cookie is used to manage sticky sessions across production servers.|
|cookielawinfo-checkbox-advertisement||1 year||Set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin, this cookie is used to record the user consent for the cookies in the "Advertisement" category .|
|cookielawinfo-checkbox-analytics||11 months||This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Analytics".|
|cookielawinfo-checkbox-functional||11 months||The cookie is set by GDPR cookie consent to record the user consent for the cookies in the category "Functional".|
|cookielawinfo-checkbox-necessary||11 months||This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookies is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Necessary".|
|cookielawinfo-checkbox-others||11 months||This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other.|
|cookielawinfo-checkbox-performance||11 months||This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Performance".|
|CookieLawInfoConsent||1 year||Records the default button state of the corresponding category & the status of CCPA. It works only in coordination with the primary cookie.|
|__cf_bm||30 minutes||This cookie, set by Cloudflare, is used to support Cloudflare Bot Management.|
|__hssc||30 minutes||HubSpot sets this cookie to keep track of sessions and to determine if HubSpot should increment the session number and timestamps in the __hstc cookie.|
|bcookie||2 years||LinkedIn sets this cookie from LinkedIn share buttons and ad tags to recognize browser ID.|
|bscookie||2 years||LinkedIn sets this cookie to store performed actions on the website.|
|lang||session||LinkedIn sets this cookie to remember a user's language setting.|
|lidc||1 day||LinkedIn sets the lidc cookie to facilitate data center selection.|
|UserMatchHistory||1 month||LinkedIn sets this cookie for LinkedIn Ads ID syncing.|
|AWSELBCORS||5 minutes||This cookie is used by Elastic Load Balancing from Amazon Web Services to effectively balance load on the servers.|
|__hstc||5 months 27 days||This is the main cookie set by Hubspot, for tracking visitors. It contains the domain, initial timestamp (first visit), last timestamp (last visit), current timestamp (this visit), and session number (increments for each subsequent session).|
|_ga||2 years||The _ga cookie, installed by Google Analytics, calculates visitor, session and campaign data and also keeps track of site usage for the site's analytics report. The cookie stores information anonymously and assigns a randomly generated number to recognize unique visitors.|
|_ga_HB5P757H6F||2 years||This cookie is installed by Google Analytics.|
|_gat_gtag_UA_202302885_1||1 minute||Set by Google to distinguish users.|
|_gid||1 day||Installed by Google Analytics, _gid cookie stores information on how visitors use a website, while also creating an analytics report of the website's performance. Some of the data that are collected include the number of visitors, their source, and the pages they visit anonymously.|
|at-rand||never||AddThis sets this cookie to track page visits, sources of traffic and share counts.|
|CONSENT||2 years||YouTube sets this cookie via embedded youtube-videos and registers anonymous statistical data.|
|hubspotutk||5 months 27 days||HubSpot sets this cookie to keep track of the visitors to the website. This cookie is passed to HubSpot on form submission and used when deduplicating contacts.|
|undefined||never||Wistia sets this cookie to collect data on visitor interaction with the website's video-content, to make the website's video-content more relevant for the visitor.|
|uvc||1 year 1 month||Set by addthis.com to determine the usage of addthis.com service.|
|_fbp||3 months||This cookie is set by Facebook to display advertisements when either on Facebook or on a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising, after visiting the website.|
|fr||3 months||Facebook sets this cookie to show relevant advertisements to users by tracking user behaviour across the web, on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin.|
|loc||1 year 1 month||AddThis sets this geolocation cookie to help understand the location of users who share the information.|
|VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE||5 months 27 days||A cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface.|
|YSC||session||YSC cookie is set by Youtube and is used to track the views of embedded videos on Youtube pages.|
|yt-remote-connected-devices||never||YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video.|
|yt-remote-device-id||never||YouTube sets this cookie to store the video preferences of the user using embedded YouTube video.|
|yt.innertube::nextId||never||This cookie, set by YouTube, registers a unique ID to store data on what videos from YouTube the user has seen.|
|yt.innertube::requests||never||This cookie, set by YouTube, registers a unique ID to store data on what videos from YouTube the user has seen.|
|AnalyticsSyncHistory||1 month||No description|
|li_gc||2 years||No description|
|loglevel||never||No description available.|
|pum-1717||1 month||No description|